← Vinay
Curiosity Project

RCB won the IPL by 6 runs. The data says why, three different ways.

Not a client project, not a job — just 18 seasons of ball-by-ball data and a question I couldn't leave alone after RCB finally won it. This is what happens when curiosity gets a SQL query.

Python SQL 18 seasons Cricsheet data
01 — Causal chain analysis

A 0.95 RPO swing, traced to a 6-run margin

Aggregating 18 seasons of ball-by-ball data in SQL and Python, I quantified a phase-wise bowling shift: RCB's powerplay economy dropped from 9.47 to 8.52 runs per over — 0.76 below the IPL average. Across the league stage, that's roughly 85 runs saved, and it traces directly to the eventual 6-run final margin.

9.47 → 8.52
powerplay economy (RPO)
~85 runs
saved across the league stage
6 runs
the eventual final margin
02 — Auction ROI model

Finding the under-priced match-winners

Built a cost-efficiency scoring model in Python — cost-per-wicket, cost-per-run — across every squad pick from the auction. It surfaced two under-priced match-winners bought for a combined ₹4.1Cr against a single ₹12.5Cr anchor signing that returned 22 wickets. The framework was designed to be reusable as a pre-auction evaluation tool, not just a one-off finding.

₹4.1Cr
combined cost, 2 under-priced picks
₹12.5Cr
single anchor signing
22
wickets from the anchor pick
03 — Home vs. away splits

RCB was actually better on the road

Cross-tabulating home vs. away performance surfaced a pitch-independence signal: bowling economy was better away (9.22) than at home (9.35), while the away win rate jumped from 33% to 85% year-over-year. That reframes how a franchise should think about retention priorities — home-ground advantage wasn't actually where RCB's edge was coming from.

9.22 vs 9.35
away vs home economy
33% → 85%
away win rate, YoY
Framed honestly: this is a public-data personal project, not professional work — it signals curiosity and analytical range, not the stakes of a client engagement.